把握中美关系的脉搏

2020年6月24日

Sean Randolph在Medium上的文章.2020年6月19日

Crises can bring countries together, united by a common purpose, or it can drive them apart. So far, the COVID-19 crisis is driving the United States and China farther apart. 事情是这样的:

在美国.S. 这是特朗普总统建议的, 没有证据显示, 病毒是从武汉的一个政府实验室泄露出来的. 这是由于中国在美国的投资.S. is subjected to greater scrutiny by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS)and the Commerce Department’s review of U.S. technology exports with potential “military end use” has tightened; a new proposed rule would give Commerce broad powers to unwind deals impacting internet and communications technology supply chains. 华为仍是目标, with a new proposal in May to bar overseas semiconductor manufacturers that use US equipment or software from selling to Huawei without government approval. Other nations are being pressed by the administration to enact similar restrictions, 在这场争论中,它似乎输了.Congress is weighing in with sanctions reacting to China’s treatment of Uighurs and its extension of security law to Hong Kong. Through all this US government officials are increasingly depicting China as an adversary, as assertion that without more nuance could prove self-fulfilling.

就中国而言, has reacted defensively and aggressively to questions regarding the origin of the virus, 攻击那些建议对其进行探索的政府. 在中国, scientists researching the topic are now required to submit their work for government review before it can be published. Attempts like this to control the narrative undermine trust and discourage cooperation. 在更广泛的层面上, 中国正在广泛的国际舞台上展示自己的影响力, 通常带有硬边. The decision of the National People’s Congress to apply China’s national security law in Hong Kong is increasing tensions further.

All this is happening in the middle of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Tensions are reflected in falling investment in both directions: according to the Rhodium Group Chinese venture investment in the US has fallen off a cliff and direct Chinese investment in the US is at its lowest level in a decade; US venture investment in China, 虽然健康,是放缓和直接投资持平.

全球卫生危机需要领导和合作. During the global financial crisis of 2008-09 US and Chinese leaders consulted closely on measures to revive the global economy. 不是今天.

但也有一种相反的说法. 最你.S. companies operating in China are positive about the relationship and want and expect business to continue. As just one example, Tesla’s entry into the electric vehicle market is proving an enormous success. 和你.S. and Chinese companies and their scientists are working closely together to address the COVID-19 challenge. So despite diverging paths at the national level,private and sub-national cooperation remains strong.

The other piece of good news is that the Phase 1 trade agreement signed in January is working–up to a point.The deal itself is a modest step that paused the escalation of tariffs. China agreed to increase purchases of US agriculture and manufactured products by $200 billion over two years, 解决技术转让和知识产权问题, 向保险等金融服务开放市场, 银行, 支付服务及证券. The hardest issues –relating to China’s industrial policies –were left to a Phase II negotiation and most of the tariffs imposed during the trade war remain in place. These deep and possibly intractable issues threaten future conflicts.

但让我们利用现有的. Key parts of the Phase 1 agreement are being implemented in good faith by China. 金融服务市场已经开放.S. 公司正在介入. Technology transfer concerns were already addressed through a new Foreign Investment Law. 金融服务业的开放已经在进行中. A road map for how China will continue intellectual property reform has been released. Longstanding regulatory barriers in agriculture are also being addressed, in fields such as agricultural biotechnology and phytosanitary standards. Implementation is a concern, but key regulatory commitments are being met.

Meeting quantitative targets for the purchase of US goods and agriculture is proving more difficult. Most observers believe the targets were unrealistic to begin with,but with COVID-19 slowing China’s economy and the world’s economy in recession,要射中那些目标将更加困难. 与预期相反, 美国制造业对中国的出口正在下降, 没有成长, 农业出口几乎没有变化. The fact that the targets are based on government-led purchases more than on private market conditions raises further questions about its sustainability as a vehicle for growing trade.

要做什么? The agreement includes a force majeure clause and if both countries agree its terms can be changed. If another downward spiral in relations is to be prevented the Phase 1 agreement must be made to work. 我们应该期待中国兑现自己的承诺, 但在今天的条件下是可行的. 成功的第一阶段, 修改或重新包装, can demonstrate the willingness of both countries to work together. 任何一方的废除都将严重破坏稳定.

A decoupling of the two economies is already happening by both governments, 从技术和供应链开始. 但是,分离的范围应该是有限的. 这是世界上最大的两个经济体, 完全脱钩既不可取,也不可能. 找一个新的楼层, both governments should come to an agreement on areas where interests will diverge, 在哪些地方应该继续合作, 以及双方都可以引领的领域. That process of pragmatic realignment should start with the Phase 1 agreement, 在这个时刻,哪一个是至关重要的,并且必须发挥作用