贸易协定的真正影响

贸易如何影响就业、制造业和经济竞争力

Political debate and the anxiety it has fueled have created an unfortunate—and inaccurate—impression that trade agreements have destroyed manufacturing and are killing US jobs. 看看这些事实,就会发现一个更复杂的故事,得出一个不同的结论.

确认

本报告由肖恩·伦道夫编写, 湾区委员会e世博游戏代理高级主任. The Institute wishes to thank the many trade and economic experts who provided valuable insights and information, 包括琳达邓普西, 副总统, 国际经济事务, National Association of Manufacturers; Dorothy Dwoskin, 高级主管, 全球贸易政策与战略, 微软; Lisa Malloy, 导演, 政策沟通, 英特尔; Matt Perault, 全球政策发展主管, Facebook; Ken Monahan, 国际贸易政策主任, National Association of Manufacturers; and Chris Wall and Robert James, 合作伙伴, 皮尔斯伯里,温斯罗普,肖,皮特曼.

The Institute particularly wishes to thank the many organizations that supported this research: Bank of the West, 欧华律师事务所, 汇丰银行, 英特尔, 微软, 皮尔斯伯里,温斯罗普,肖,皮特曼, 奥克兰港, 旧金山国际机场, 签证, 和富国银行.

展望自由贸易协定

总的来说,自由贸易协定让美国和美国工人受益. 双边和多边协定都是如此. 这些协议是美国为了自身利益而谈判达成的, 从而反映了美国的价值观和目标. 它们还反映出我们与谈判伙伴的利益一致, 谁同样从不断增长的贸易中受益. 与一些人断言的相反, there is no evidence that bilateral agreements are inherently superior to multilateral ones, 自由贸易协定被我们的伙伴滥用或操纵. 因为他们的规模, multilateral agreements can in fact deliver strategic benefits to the US that bilateral ones may not.

自1980年代以来, both bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) have been used by nations around the world to reduce barriers, 开放的市场, 在投资等领域建立新的和更高的标准, 知识产权, 现在是数字商务. Behind the US approach to trade agreements has been a recognition that as global markets grow in importance and emerging markets expand, 贸易和投资机会也在增加.

共产主义的崩溃, 中国和印度进入世界经济, and accelerating growth in Asia and other regions have brought billions of new consumers into the global market economy. That includes hundreds of millions of consumers who have entered the middle class with new purchasing power. 通过减少贸易和投资壁垒, 美国多届政府的领导人都相信,海外市场将会扩张, 这不仅是因为贸易壁垒的降低,还因为贸易量的增长. 美国企业不能忽视这些机会, as 95 percent of the world’s population and 75 percent of global purchasing power now reside outside the United States.

Multiple assessments have shown that free trade agreements have clear benefits for the United States. US International Trade Commission economic analysis models have found that in addition to positively affecting real GDP, 就业, 和工资, FTAs currently in force increased US trade surpluses or reduced trade deficits with partner countries by 59.2%(87美元.50亿美元). 它们还节省了高达13美元的关税.2014年40亿通过降低成本,使消费者——尤其是低收入或中等收入的消费者——受益.

Of the 267 bilateral and regional free trade agreements that have been negotiated around the world, 只有14项涉及美国. 拟议中的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)中的条款, 美国和11个贸易伙伴之间的一项协议, were positioned as the centerpiece of US strategy both to 开放的市场 and cement US economic leadership in the Asia-Pacific region. The withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific 合作伙伴hip will not stop this global process. 加拿大和欧盟最近批准了一项自由贸易协定, 日本和欧洲正在讨论. 在亚洲, China’s proposed 16-nation trade agreement—RCEP—is positioned to fill the void left by the US withdrawal.

对制造业的影响

综上所述, 在美国制造的所有出口产品中,近一半是由自由贸易协定伙伴购买的, even though they account for only 6 percent of the world’s consumers and less than 10 percent of the world’s economy. 2015年,美国的平均汇率为6美元.与20个自由贸易伙伴相比,中国的商品和服务贸易顺差为40亿美元,而中国的顺差仅为489美元.与非自由贸易国家的贸易逆差为80亿美元. 目前, 美国最大的贸易逆差是对中国, which has no trade agreement with the US and was not a party to the proposed Trans-Pacific 合作伙伴hip.

与批评家的说法相反, trade agreements are not the fundamental cause of erosion in the US manufacturing sector or of the disappearance of manufacturing jobs. 制造业产出正在增长,美国制造业企业的产出达到创纪录的2美元.2015年价值2万亿美元. 制造业生产, 然而, 不同于就业, 这几十年来一直在下降. 只有一小部分(大约13%)的下降是由于贸易. 我们制造业工作岗位减少的真正原因是技术, 哪一种生产效率更高,需要的工人更少. 一个具有指导意义的类比是农业, 自2010年以来,美国的产量增长了13%, 而农业岗位减少了15%, 这两种趋势都源于技术. 这些是不可阻挡的进程,将继续下去.

事实上,自由贸易协定对制造业产生了积极的影响. 2015年,美国制造商的销量为12美元.给自由贸易伙伴的制成品比美国公司从他们那里购买的多70亿美元. 与此同时,美国制造业的贸易逆差为639美元.与没有自由贸易协定的国家合作的60亿美元.

亚太贸易:TPP为何仍然重要

美国本可以期待从《e世博万达国际》(Trans-Pacific 合作伙伴hip,简称tpp)中获得类似的好处. 而美国已正式退出该协议, 它仍可能受益于具有类似条款的后续协议.

美国国际贸易委员会(US International Trade Commission)对TPP的估计是这样的, 对TPP伙伴的出口增长将快于对其他国家的出口. 来自TPP伙伴国的进口也会增长,但增速不及出口. 关于就业, the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that the agreement would have raised real US wages but would not have significantly changed overall 就业 levels.

“工作生产,“工作在公司之间的流动, 行业, 和行业, 彼得森研究所的模型预测是53,每年700, including both jobs eliminated in less productive import-competing firms and jobs added in firms that expand. 经验表明,由此产生的工作, 在制造业和服务业, 是否比那些没有全球竞争的公司的工作报酬更高. The great majority of these jobs are for middle-class Americans who produce and move the goods and generate the services.

而制造业是贸易辩论的主要焦点, 服务也很重要:可交易的商业服务(包括法律服务), 咨询, 金融服务, 会计, 体系结构, 工程, 医疗保健, 和教育)占美国就业的25%,是制造业的两倍. 服务型经济发展迅速, and the Peterson Institute projects that 90 percent of US workers will be employed in the service sector by 2030. 与商品贸易相比,美国在服务贸易方面拥有相当大的顺差.

The principles and provisions contained in TPP significantly benefit large and small companies across a range of 行业. Technology companies and their workers would benefit through the opening of service markets, 加强知识产权保护, 保护数据的跨境移动, 以及保护源代码不被外国政府没收. Agriculture would also benefit, as once-restricted markets such as Japan’s would open to US exports. 在其他感兴趣的领域, TPP的条款包括可强制执行的劳工和环境保护, 设定了迄今为止任何国际贸易协定的最高标准.

期待

尽管美国已正式退出《e世博万达国际》(tpp), the principles that it advanced would produce net benefits for the economy and for American workers. 毫无疑问,贸易促进了经济波动, 因为竞争力较低的工作减少,而竞争力较高的工作增加. 在这个过程中,更多的美国人会受益,而不是失去. 然而,对于那些失去的人来说,痛苦是真实的. 在回应, 我们应该彻底改革贸易调整援助(TAA), the federal program that provides transitional help toward new 就业 for dislocated workers. 除此之外, 我们国家需要一个综合性的, 两党共同制定了一项战略,旨在帮助那些不仅受到贸易影响的工人转型, but by global competition and the dramatic changes that technology is producing across the economy.

认为贸易协定要为这些混乱负责的焦虑是没有根据的. 有令人信服的证据表明,加州和整个国家, 通过有竞争力的公司和他们的员工, 从更加开放的贸易中获益. ­Addressing the dislocations caused by global competition and the technology-driven changes that are transforming both industries and jobs—changes that are not caused by trade agreements—is an important and complex task that should be on the national agenda. But the US should not back away from trade agreements or abdicate its role as the leading global advocate for free and 开放的市场.

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