The Case for a Second Transbay Transit Crossing

Each day, hundreds of thousands of Bay Area residents board BART trains to reach their workplace, to run errands, or to spend a night out with family and friends. Increasingly, these riders are met with frustrating delays, crowded trains and platforms, and unreliable travel times. 随着旧金山湾区面临着全国最严重的交通状况,数百万居民面临着该地区道路日益拥堵的问题.1 This deterioration in service and mobility has serious economic costs, 由于无法容纳区域内的流动,影响了宜居性,并可能限制进一步的经济增长.

The transbay corridor, 包括旧金山湾区捷运的跨海湾管道和旧金山海湾大桥——它们共同提供了奥克兰(及更广阔的东湾)和旧金山(并指向南)之间的主要交通连接——坐落在旧金山湾区的地理和经济中心. It also constitutes the region’s most challenging transportation bottleneck. During peak commute periods, 海湾大桥的车辆承载量已达到最大,捷运系统的列车经常超载.

There were many substantive contributors to this project.

Report Writing Staff

Jeff Bellisario
Economic Institute, Vice President
Sean Randolph, PhD
Economic Institute Senior Director
Micah Weinberg, PhD
Economic Institute President

Acknowledgements

The Bay Area Council Economic Institute would like to thank Jeffrey Heller, President of Heller Manus Architects, 感谢他对这份报告的贡献以及他在讨论第二个跨越洋过境点时的智慧领导.

Average Weekday Transbay Trips
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Annual Bay Bridge Vehicle Traffic and Yearly Growth Rates
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Bay Area Transportation Project Timelines and Cost
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Possible Connections to Standard Gauge Rail Networks
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目前正在制定战略,以提高跨海湾走廊的能力和可靠性. With significant investments, BART can increase train frequency, WETA can provide increased ferry service, and AC Transit can run buses across a dedicated Bay Bridge bus lane. 即使有这些投资,湾区捷运的跨海湾渡口预计也会达到绝对容量.e., full length trains, filled to capacity, 以最大可能的频率运行)在未来二十年保守的增长假设下.

Insufficient capacity is one piece of the congestion challenge, 但旧金山湾区捷运的跨海湾瓶颈给旧金山湾区的连接带来了额外的威胁. First, 旧金山湾区捷运系统(BART)的基础设施老化,以及该地区严重依赖transbay tube将乘客运送到核心城市地区,导致服务可靠性下降. 机械门故障或轨道交换装置故障等问题会造成通勤延误,长达数小时,并可能阻塞区域交通和道路网络. Second, 需要保持transbay tube对通勤者开放,限制了BART进行日常维护和大修的能力, both of which are required for infrastructure that is four decades old.

如果一个主要的机械问题或自然灾害使现有的管道长时间停止服务,区域运输系统也几乎没有内置的替代transbay选择. At its busiest, the tube carries 28,000 passengers per hour, double the number of passengers traveling on the Bay Bridge, so there would be limited ability to handle commute flows if the BART tube were to fail.

随着进入跨海湾管道的所有线路的客流量的增长,以及整个地区高速公路走廊的交通依赖于BART的表现, 解决跨海湾走廊瓶颈将对确保该地区未来的经济韧性发挥关键作用. Given the long lead-time required to plan and build infrastructure, 该地区已达到关键时刻,探索第二个跨越洋过境的选择是必要的.

在分析一个新的跨海湾过境点时,该地区在过去50年经历了显著的变化. BART was designed in the 1960s, when the Bay Area population was under 4 million people. Today, the Bay Area population tops 7.5 million and is projected to hit 9.3 million by 2040. A growing population is closely linked to a robust economy. Since 2010, Bay Area employment has grown at 3.2% annually, double the rate of peer US metropolitan areas.3 蓬勃发展的经济给该地区的交通系统带来了日益严重的拥堵, as more people are commuting to work and more trucks are on the roads making deliveries.

Locations throughout the region have been transformed completely by this growth. For example, 旧金山湾区捷运开通时,旧金山的Mission Bay地区是一个未得到充分利用的铁路站场, but now is home to a UCSF campus, has become an international center for biotechnology, and has a robust pipeline of infill housing office development projects. 奥克兰市中心的经济和人口增长也正达到一个临界点,而此时几乎没有多余的核心运输能力来容纳这种扩张.

最近的人口和就业增长是跨海湾运输能力受限的重要驱动因素, but there are other factors, including: a trend toward reduced car ownership; regional planning that targets and encourages growth around major transit hubs; job growth concentration in the urban core; and recent and future BART extensions that funnel more commuters into the transbay bottleneck. All of these factors continue to bolster BART ridership, putting more pressure on transbay capacity and reliability.

Yet with all this growth and change, 现在的核心捷运系统看起来与20世纪70年代开始运行的系统非常相似. 为了满足客流量的增长,长程、高频率的列车已经成为旧金山湾区捷运的对策, but the system will eventually hit a limit on its ability to respond in this way. 下一步需要对核心交通基础设施进行新的投资,以适应该地区的交通需求和未来的交通需求. 该地区以战略性和快速的方式应对这一挑战的能力,不仅对湾区的竞争力和生产力具有重要的长期影响, but its livability as well.

The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC), the region’s transportation planning agency, 正在研究海湾两岸几个有希望的着陆点,作为其核心能力过境研究的一部分,进行第二次跨海湾过境研究. One option, for example, includes a new BART tube connecting East Bay BART service, via Downtown Oakland and Alameda Island, with the existing San Francisco BART line, via Mission Bay and/or the South of Market area. 第二种选择是修建一条新的跨海湾铁路隧道,可供Caltrain和/或国会走廊列车使用. 这一路线将促进高速铁路的交付,并将奥克兰市中心的一个新的运输中心与未来的旧金山Transbay运输中心连接起来. While driven by capacity and reliability needs, 这些路线选择表明,第二个transbay过境可以创造变异性的过境连接, befitting the growth and dynamism of the Bay Area economy.

开始对第二个跨海湾过境点的经济案例和能够实现这一愿景的融资模式进行更广泛的论述, this issue brief

  • summarizes the economic drag associated with current transbay transportation systems;
  • describes several options under consideration for a second transbay rail crossing;
  • identifies the benefits of addressing transbay transportation constraints; and
  • 描述了如何利用创造性的合同和资金模式来及时地交付第二个跨海湾过境点.