Dissecting the Downward Revision to Bay Area Job Estimates
•向下修正发生在2021年5月之后.In that month the revisions raised, now lowered, the Bay Area job total.
• The downward revisions were largest in the Leisure and Hospitality sector that includes hotels, 餐厅, 和游乐园. 科技行业就业数据被上调.
• The downward revisions in the Bay Area were comparable in % terms to those statewide. 然而, the Bay Area and state have now recovered a much smaller share of jobs lost compared to the nation.
• The number of people in the Bay Area labor force was revised downward. 这意味着什么呢?
In February 2020 prior to the virus spread, revisions raised job levels in the state and Bay Area. In May 2020 the Bay Area accounted for nearly all the state upward revisions. 向下修正发生在2020年晚些时候.
2020年12月, 修订的最后一个月, the Bay Area accounted for just under 25% of the state revisions, 哪个是符合该地区的国家工作份额的.
Largest Downward Revisions were in Leisure and Hospitality While Tech Jobs were Revised Up Slightly
The Leisure and Hospitality sector was revised downward by 53,000 jobs for December 2020 accounting for all the region’s downward revisions. The activity restrictions were still in full force for this sector through the end of 2020. It should be noted that the later months of 2020 may be revised again when full data is available. Job levels in some sectors were revised upward including +28,800 in the Information sector that includes internet related services. Manufacturing jobs were also revised upward so tech broadly defined including the downward revisions to Professional and Business Services jobs, 在修订中获得.
The Bay Area Had Recovered Just 29% of Lost Jobs by January 2021
2021年1月，湾区已经恢复了29个.在2020年2月至4月间，失业人数减少了4%. 州政府已经收回了34个.0%，而国家恢复了超过一半(55.8%)失去的工作. The probable cause of low job recovery in the region and state was the extent and duration of activity restrictions compared to elsewhere in the nation. Looking at large metro areas in California the recovery share was SF (13.3%)，东湾(39.圣何塞(30.7%), LA (25.9%),橙色(27.4%)， Riverside-San Bernardino (53.5%)和圣地亚哥(37.5%).
Labor Force Losses Were Added to the Poor Job Performance
旧金山湾区的劳动力被修正了24个百分点,2020年12月有900人，另有25人,1月份有700名居民离开了劳动力市场. It is possible some of these residents left the region either for remote work opportunities or as part of the growing trend of out migration to find less expensive housing.
The extent of out migration related to the pandemic and the future of remote work is unclear at this time. Recent evidence is that most recent movers from the Bay Area sites stayed within the region or moved relatively close by while a smaller share left the state.
All Bay Area counties have moved into the red tier and on March 16th San Mateo County moved into the Orange tier with other counties poised to follow.
The Bay Area has the lowest case rate among California regions.
Bay Area counties rank high in vaccinations per 100,000 residents among the state’s 58 counties.
Several additional factors point to a better economic outlook for the Bay Area. The UCLA March 2021 forecast has the state outpacing the nation in job growth for the next three years led by the Bay Area economy. 最近通过的新冠肺炎救助计划(1美元.9万亿), 新移民政策, trade and infrastructure all support the region and state economies.
然而,, the Bay Area Council warnings about losing our competitiveness remain as housing and mobility challenges are far from solved—the major causes of recent movements of companies and residents.
Stemming the Tide of Jobs, Investment Leaving California:
随着工作和投资不断逃离加州, identifying the key issues and solutions to the state’s worsening business climate is imperative. Bay Area Council CEO Jim Wunderman today joined a virtual town hall hosted by Chapman University and including a panel of many of the state’s leading business and academic leaders to discuss the disastrous consequences of failing to take seriously the threat to California’s economy. The discussion comes as the Council launches a new statewide initiative focused on reversing the exodus of talent, 公司和投资对高税收的担忧, onerous regulations and the multiple threats of a historic housing crisis, 越来越多的无家可归者和不断升级的影响——野火, 干旱, 极端天气-气候变化. 也, how COVID is dramatically altering the considerations of businesses in deciding where they need to locate.
The Council will circulate a link to watch the recorded town hall next week. To learn more about the Council’s Repair California initiative and how you can participate and support the work, 请联系首席运营官约翰·格拉布.