海湾地区就业观察

复苏的步伐

2020年11月23日

亮点:

•旧金山湾区(32,800) job growth in October as many counties relaxed restrictions on reopening.
•在4月至10月之间,湾区共回收了39个.6% of the jobs lost between February and April trailing the state and nation. 10月份,旧金山湾区的复苏步伐加快. However, the recent restrictions imposed should cause a temporary slowing in job growth.
• 拜登当选后,长期前景有所改善. The Bay Area will benefit from a more welcoming immigration policy, a more collaborative approach to foreign trade and the new administration’s proposals if they can be implemented.
• 该地区的失业率为2.2月为7%,13.4月和6月分别为1%和1%.10月的9%. For the first time in many months, a large number of residents rejoined the workforce.
• 这一更新还着眼于行业部门的趋势, 航空旅行的数据, 以及湾区地区房屋需求评估(RHNA)

California and the Bay Area Lagged the Nation in Job Recovery in October Despite Strong Job Gains

The state and Bay Area recovered a smaller share of the jobs lost by October compared to the nation. This is the result of our more cautious reopening pace and the more than 80% decline in business and visitor travel and resulting loss of spending and jobs. The Bay Area did see more reopenings in October and an increase in the % of jobs recovered.

 

The share of jobs recovered by October varies somewhat among the metro areas with the largest share recovered in the San Jose metro area (49.6%),纳帕都市区的份额最小(25.8%).

 

Unemployment rates rose sharply between February and April throughout the region. October data showed large declines in unemployment rates across the region. 该地区的失业率从13下降.4月至8日为1%.9月和6月为0%.10月的9%. 所有都市区的比率都低于9%.

 

The number of unemployed residents fell quite a bit in October to 287,800 from 325,200 in September. But t在这里 are still more than twice as many residents unemployed compared to February before the pandemic spread.

 

The largest job losses were in Leisure and Hospitality w在这里 half the jobs went away between February and April. 金融活动(109.7%) and Construction showed the biggest recovery by October (94.8%) while the Wholesale Trade sector had a relatively small recovery rate so far. Government and Information are the only sectors to lose jobs after April. The overall job losses and recovery are affected by the continuing decline in Information and Government jobs.

 

航空旅行在2月份之后暴跌,损失达90%甚至更多. T在这里 was a small rebound since August but air travel remains deeply depressed.

Oakland airport reported a 68% decline in October while SFO reported an 80% decline in September close to the 81% decline reported by SJC. Airlines are reporting holiday cancellations after the stay at home guidance from health officials.

The ABAG RHNA allocation methodology committee made their final recommendation on Friday. The regional allocation from HCD is described first and then the decision on local area allocation afterwards.

The California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) just released the Regional Housing Needs Determination (RHNA) for the Bay Area for the period from June 2022 through December 2030. HCD的信件见 http://hcd.ca.gov/community-development/housing-element/docs/ABAGRHNA-Final060920(r).pdfThe Bay Area target is 135% higher than the current target and includes 441,176 units distributed among four income groups – very low (for residents up to 50% of area median income (AMI)), 低(AMI的50%至80%), 中度(AMI的80% - 120%)及以上. A majority of the units needed are in the very low to moderate income groups.

 

HCD使用了一种新的方法来进行需求评估. Recent state legislation required HCD to include housing units to reduce the number of households that are overcrowded and cost-burdened. HCD将湾区与可比地区的份额进行了比较. HCD has always included units to return the region to a normal vacancy rate and to replace demolished housing.

The final determinant is allowance for units to accommodate the region’s expected growth. HCD used new population projections from the state Department of Finance (DOF) instead of the regional growth forecast developed by ABAG that projected 400,2030年比DOF多了1万多居民.

Only half of the Bay Area housing needs according to this analysis come from growth. 其余的则是纠正现有短缺的结果.

 

The ABAG RHNA allocation methodology committee recommended an approach that allocates an above average share of the regional RHNA to cities that are considered high opportunity areas and cities that have good auto and transit proximity to jobs. The result is that the largest % increases in housing went to communities along the peninsula.

The details and city by city allocations are found in the meeting materials that can be found 在这里.

The recommended allocation is alternative 8A that allocates 70% of the low and very low-income units based on high opportunity areas and 15% each to proximity to jobs for transit and autos. For moderate and above moderate income units the allocation was based 40% on high opportunity areas and 60% on auto proximity to jobs.

这些经济更新的作者是斯蒂芬·利维, Director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, 还是湾区委员会e世博游戏代理董事会成员.